RICHMOND – A “seismic shift” toward mattress e-commerce in the COVID-19 pandemic could help propel that channel to double its market share, an industry analyst predicts.
Long-time Stifel analyst John Baugh offers his thoughts on the evolving bedding marketplace in a new report, one in which he notes that he’s hearing that “consumer demand has recovered much faster than the industry expected; what began as a demand problem in March when the virus began has quickly shifted to a supply problem as retail bedding demand has ratcheted up over the important Memorial Day and July 4th promotional periods.”
Baugh said his examination of e-commerce metrics shows a “sharp upward move” from the depressed sales levels the industry experienced in March.
“The virus ushered in a huge consumer shift for bedding to the online channel due to brick-and- mortar store closures, which has continued, although at tapered levels, as safety concerns remain even as stores reopen,” he wrote.
“Traditional mattress players with modest e-commerce business pre-virus have seen triple-digit gains year-over-year, while more online-centric players have seen double-digit-plus percentage gains in e-commerce,” Baugh continued.
“The virus has likely accelerated consumer adoption of the e-commerce channel, which accounted for 15% of the industry last year vs. 85% in-store. We estimate that the steady-state long-term mix could eventually settle out at 30%/70%, online/in-store, respectively.”